Crude Oil all time high by...?: how this market works
What you need to know
This market asks whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high price before a set deadline. Specifically, it asks whether the price of U.S. crude oil (the benchmark traded on CME Group, the main commodities exchange) will ever touch above $147.27 on any single trading day. That $147.27 figure is the record high crude oil has ever hit, set back in July 2008 during an extreme price spike. A Yes means oil smashes that 16-year-old record. A No means it never gets there in time. The market settles Yes the moment crude oil's official daily high price, as published by CME Group for the 'front month' futures contract, meaning the nearest upcoming delivery date, exceeds $147.27 on any single trading day before the deadline. It does not need to close above that level, just touch it intraday. There are two deadlines being tracked: September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026. If oil never crosses that threshold by whichever date applies, that version resolves No automatically once that final trading day's data is confirmed. One headline stands out as potentially relevant: a report that Iran bombed Oman, which would be an unusual and serious escalation in the Middle East, a region that heavily influences global oil supply and prices. The other headlines (floods in India, a hiking pilgrimage, a TV show) have no clear connection to crude oil markets. The Iran-Oman story is worth watching, since geopolitical tensions in that region can move oil prices quickly, but no specific price impact data was provided. Crude oil hitting an all-time high would require a price surge of roughly 80, 100% from recent levels, depending on where oil is trading now, that is a very large move. The market currently prices the September deadline at just 6% and the December deadline at 14%, reflecting how rare such extreme spikes are. The genuine uncertainty here is less about two balanced sides and more about whether a rare, severe shock, a major war, a supply collapse, a sudden demand surge, could happen within a short window. That is inherently hard to forecast.
The odds right now
- December 31+2.0 pts (1w)16%
- September 30+0.1 pts (1w)7%
Price history
December 31
How this resolves
Resolves December 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.
Related
Other outcomes in this market
- December 3116%
- September 307%
More markets like this
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
- Will … ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
- Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
More market guides
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?: how this market works
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: how this market works
- How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?: how this market works
- Will … ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?: how this market works
Same markets. A fraction of the fee.
These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.
Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.
Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.
View & trade →