Ethereum above ___ on July 26?: how this market works

What you need to know

This is actually three separate markets bundled together, each asking whether Ethereum's price will be above a specific dollar level on one exact day: July 26, 2026. A 'Yes' means ETH is trading above that threshold at noon Eastern Time on that date. A 'No' means it is at or below it. The three thresholds are $1,800, $1,900, and $2,000, so each one is its own question with its own odds. Settlement depends on one single data point: the closing price of the ETH/USDT trading pair on Binance during the one-minute candle that starts at exactly 12:00 PM Eastern Time on July 26, 2026. If that closing price is strictly higher than the threshold, it resolves Yes. At or below the threshold means No. Only Binance is used, not Coinbase or any other exchange, so a price difference between platforms does not count. No specific recent news was matched to this market. The kind of developments that would matter here include major shifts in crypto regulation, significant macroeconomic changes like interest rate decisions, large institutional moves into or out of Ethereum, or technical upgrades to the Ethereum network itself. Crypto prices over a 12-plus month horizon are genuinely hard to forecast. The market currently prices $1,800 as very likely (96%), $1,900 as roughly a coin toss (37%), and $2,000 as quite unlikely (3%), reflecting where ETH trades today relative to those levels. But a year is a long time in crypto: regulatory shifts, broader market cycles, or macro shocks can move prices dramatically in either direction, making even a 96% probability far from certain.

The odds right now

• 1,400100%
• 1,500100%
• 1,60099%
• 1,70099%
• 1,80089%
• 1,90017%
• 2,0001%
• 2,1001%
• 2,2000%
• 2,3000%
• 2,4000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.