Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Garmin will earn more profit per share than analysts expect when it reports its next quarterly results. The target is $2.29 in non-GAAP EPS, which is the earnings-per-share figure that strips out certain accounting items like stock compensation. A Yes means Garmin reports even one cent above $2.29. A No means it hits exactly $2.29 or comes in below it. When Garmin publishes its earnings report around July 29, 2026, the headline non-GAAP EPS number in that release is compared to $2.29. If it is $2.30 or higher, the market settles as Yes. If it is $2.29 or lower, it settles as No. One edge case worth knowing: if Garmin delays its report by more than 45 days past that date, the market automatically resolves No. Also, later corrections to the number do not count unless there was an obvious clerical error. The recent news provided covers earnings from unrelated financial companies and does not include anything about Garmin specifically. There is no Garmin-specific news to point to here. The kind of updates that would matter most are Garmin's own pre-announcements, any guidance revisions, or analyst estimate changes ahead of the July 29 report. The market prices this at about 71% chance of a Yes, reflecting that Garmin has a track record of beating analyst estimates. But that history is no guarantee. Things that could push results lower include weaker consumer spending on GPS devices and wearables, currency headwinds since Garmin sells globally, or supply chain costs. Analyst estimates also shift over time, so the bar of $2.29 was set at market creation and may not reflect the most current consensus.

The odds right now

• Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?-11.0 pts (1w)71%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

As of market creation, Garmin is estimated to release earnings on July 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Garmin’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.29 as of market creation. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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