Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 22, 2026 feel like in Helsinki? Specifically, it is asking you to pick which single-degree temperature bucket will contain the day's peak reading at Helsinki's main airport. A result of 17°C, for example, means the warmest the day ever gets is exactly 17 degrees Celsius, which is a mild, cool summer day, roughly equivalent to about 63°F. This is not about the average temperature, just the single highest recorded value for that one day. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station on July 22, 2026, as published on the weather site Wunderground. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 16.7°C would count as 16°C, not 17°C. The market cannot close until Wunderground posts its first data point for July 23, at which point the final recorded peak for the 22nd is locked in and any later corrections are ignored. No recent news relevant to Helsinki weather on July 22, 2026 was provided. The one headline in the feed is about groundwater management in Islamabad, which has no connection to this market. The kind of news that would matter here would be medium-range weather forecasts for southern Finland issued a week or so before the date, since reliable forecasts rarely extend much further than that. Weather this far in advance is genuinely hard to predict, even for professional meteorologists. July 22, 2026 is over a year away, which puts it entirely outside the reach of any meaningful forecast model. Helsinki in late July typically sees highs ranging from around 13°C to 25°C or more depending on whether a warm continental air mass or a cool Atlantic system is in place that week. That wide natural range is why the top three outcomes are all clustered within just a few degrees and share most of the probability between them.

The odds right now

• 18°C28%
• 17°C27%
• 16°C18%
• 19°C18%
• 15°C9%
• 14°C3%
• 20°C or higher3%
• 13°C1%
• 12°C0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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