Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Shenzhen, measured at the city's main airport weather station? The answer options are specific whole-number temperatures in Celsius. Think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer at noon on a summer day in one of China's hottest cities. The three options currently offered are 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), and 34°C (about 93°F). This settles based on the single highest temperature logged at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on that day, as reported by Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius. The market locks in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page, so any last-minute corrections before that cutoff count, but revisions after that point do not. Whichever temperature bracket contains the recorded peak wins. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would genuinely matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for southern China in late July, or any data about unusual heat patterns forming over the region in the days leading up to July 23. Weather is genuinely hard to forecast more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, which makes precise prediction nearly impossible today. Late July is reliably hot in Shenzhen, and historical highs at the airport cluster in the 32 to 35 degree range, but any single day can land higher or lower depending on cloud cover, rain, wind, and regional pressure systems. The market currently splits its weight mostly between 33°C and 34°C, reflecting that uncertainty rather than a confident answer.

The odds right now

• 33°C38%
• 34°C29%
• 32°C19%
• 31°C10%
• 35°C7%
• 30°C2%
• 36°C or higher1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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