Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tokyo get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The three main options are 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C, which translate roughly to 95°F, 97°F, and 99°F. Think of it as picking which notch on the thermometer the peak afternoon heat will hit on that one summer day. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 23, 2026, as reported by the weather tracking site Wunderground. Whatever the single peak reading is that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, determines the winner. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 24 appears on Wunderground before it officially closes out, to make sure the full day's readings are captured. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is still over a year away, the kind of updates that would actually matter are shorter-range weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks for Tokyo in late July 2026, none of which exist yet at this distance. A year out, weather prediction is genuinely close to impossible at this precision. Even professional forecasters can only reliably predict temperatures a week or two ahead. July is deep summer in Tokyo and historically very hot, which is why the market clusters around 35 to 36°C, but any single day can run hotter or cooler depending on cloud cover, wind, rain, or a passing weather system. Picking the exact degree on one specific day, this far out, carries real uncertainty even for experts.

The odds right now

• 36°C35%
• 35°C29%
• 37°C18%
• 34°C12%
• 38°C4%
• 33°C2%
• 32°C1%
• 39°C or higher0%
• 31°C0%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.