How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?: What It Means & How It Resolves

What you need to know

This market asks how far Donald Trump's approval rating will fall during 2026, with three separate thresholds: 35%, 30%, and 25%. Each threshold is its own Yes or No question. A 'Yes' on the 35% market means his approval rating touched 35% or lower at least once during the year. A 'No' means it stayed above that level every single day. The lower the threshold, the harder it is to reach, which is why the odds drop sharply from 35% down to 25%. Each threshold resolves Yes if Silver Bulletin's poll tracker, specifically the green trend line on Nate Silver's website, shows Trump's approval at or below that number on any single day in 2026. It only needs to happen once. A reading is only counted once the next data point is published, which finalizes the previous one. The market runs through December 31, 2026. If Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable, RealClearPolitics steps in as the backup source. The recent headlines point to active trade tensions involving tariffs, ongoing diplomatic and military developments with Iran, and Trump making public comments about a possible 2028 run. These kinds of events, trade disputes that affect everyday prices and foreign policy moves that carry risk, are exactly the types of things that historically move presidential approval ratings up or down. No specific polling data was included in the news provided, so the direct impact on his current numbers is not yet visible here. Presidential approval ratings are genuinely hard to forecast a full year out. A lot can happen: economic shocks, international crises, policy wins, or scandals can all shift public opinion quickly. The 35% threshold is priced at 35% odds, meaning the market sees it as possible but not the expected outcome. The 25% threshold at 5% reflects how rare such a low reading would be historically. The main challenge is that approval ratings tend to move slowly and within a range, but unexpected events can break those patterns in ways nobody anticipates.

The odds right now

35%+2.5 pts (1w)34%
30%+1.0 pts (1w)6%
25%5%
20%+0.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

35%

34%+1.0%

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

35%34%
30%6%
25%5%
20%2%

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