How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many of 34 specific candidates, all endorsed by AIPAC, will lose their own party's primary elections before August 4, 2026. AIPAC is a pro-Israel lobbying group that backs candidates across both parties. A primary is the in-party election where voters choose their party's nominee. The question is not about the general election in November, just the earlier round where Democrats pick their Democrat and Republicans pick their Republican. The market settles based on how many of the 34 named candidates fail to advance past their primary. A candidate counts as a winner if they move on to the general election, even if they finish second in a top-two primary system, or if no primary is held because they ran unopposed. The final count of losses determines which range resolves as Yes: 0-1, 2-3, or 4-5. Official state election results are the source, with credible news reporting as a backup. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The developments worth watching in the future would be any primary challengers gaining momentum, candidate fundraising reports, or shifts in voter sentiment around U.S.-Israel policy that could energize opposition to AIPAC-backed incumbents in specific races. Most incumbents win primaries, which is why the market prices 0-1 losses at just 1% and concentrates heavily on 2-3. The real difficulty is that 34 races span six states, two parties, and very different local political environments. A small number of contested races, like ones with strong challengers or redistricted seats, could tip the count from 2-3 into 4-5. Predicting which specific races become competitive, and by how much, is genuinely hard this far from the primaries.

The odds right now

• 2–3-12.5 pts (1w)68%
• 4–5+25.0 pts (1w)33%
• 0–1-10.9 pts (1w)1%
• 6–7-2.4 pts (1w)1%
• 10+-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 8–9-1.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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