How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many ships pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in one specific week? The Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is one of the busiest shipping corridors in the world. The three answer choices split the week's total into ranges: fewer than 180 ships, between 200 and 219 ships, or 220 or more. Notably, there is no option covering 180 to 199, so that gap is worth keeping in mind. The market settles based on the official ship arrival count that IMF PortWatch publishes for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, covering every day from August 3 through August 9, 2026. IMF PortWatch is a public shipping-data tool run by the International Monetary Fund. It counts container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and similar cargo vessels. Only ships that PortWatch itself records are counted. If the data is not published within 14 days, the most recent available data is used instead. Obvious clerical errors in the data can trigger a short delay for correction, but differences with other shipping data sources do not count as errors. One headline from August 4, 2026 directly mentions shipping traffic at key Gulf waterways, noting it is little changed amid uncertain peace talks. That suggests no dramatic surge or collapse in traffic heading into this measurement week. The other headlines from that date cover unrelated topics and have no bearing on shipping through this strait. There is no news suggesting a major disruption or reopening that would push traffic sharply in either direction right now. The core uncertainty here is the state of security in and around Yemen. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping pushed traffic through Bab el-Mandeb sharply lower in 2024 and 2025, as many shipping companies rerouted around Africa instead. Whether traffic recovers toward historic norms depends on ceasefire negotiations and how confident shipping companies feel about safety, and those things can shift quickly. The market currently spreads its weight between the under-180 and 200-219 ranges, reflecting real disagreement about how much recovery has already happened.

The odds right now

• <18044%
• 200-21937%
• 220+13%
• 180-1998%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 9, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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