Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil, will hit a specific daily peak at any point before September. The three separate versions of this market set different thresholds: 30 ships in a day, 40 ships in a day, or 50 ships in a day. A Yes means that on at least one day, the official IMF count of arriving ships meets or exceeds that number. A No means it never does. The market settles based on one specific data source: IMF Portwatch, which tracks daily ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz. If that tracker records a finalized daily count at or above the threshold on even a single day before August 31, 2026, the market resolves Yes immediately. The previous day's count is considered finalized once the next day's data appears. One important edge case: if data is delayed or not fully published within 14 days after the period ends, the market resolves using whatever data is available at that point. The most relevant news here involves rising tension between the US and Iran in early August 2026. Reports say Iran is warning the US against further attacks while also cautioning allies about potential escalation, and US embassies in the Middle East have flagged the risk of sudden conflict. These headlines matter because the Strait of Hormuz sits right at the heart of any US-Iran confrontation, and military tension in the region can reduce or disrupt commercial ship transits significantly. The core tension here is between two opposing forces: normal commercial shipping demand pulling traffic up, and geopolitical risk potentially pushing it down or causing sudden disruption. The recent Iran-US tension adds real unpredictability. The 30-ship threshold is priced at 55%, meaning the market sees it as genuinely uncertain but slightly more likely than not. The 50-ship threshold at 19% reflects much lower confidence that traffic will spike that high. What makes all three hard to call is that a single diplomatic incident, or equally a sudden de-escalation, could shift daily traffic sharply in either direction.

The odds right now

• 30+53%
• 40+37%
• 50+24%
• 60+16%
• 80+5%
• 100+2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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