Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many ships per day, on average, will be passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of August 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and roughly 20% of the world's oil moves through it. The three options, 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60 ships, represent very low, reduced, and more normal levels of traffic. A Yes on the lowest bracket would mean the strait is nearly empty, a sign of serious disruption. The market settles on whichever bracket matches the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals that IMF Portwatch publishes for August 31, 2026. A 7-day moving average just means the daily count is smoothed by averaging the surrounding week, so one unusual day does not swing the result dramatically. Ships counted include tankers, cargo ships, and bulk carriers, but only vessels that IMF Portwatch tracks. If the number lands exactly on the border between two brackets, it goes to the higher one. If the data is delayed, the most recent available figure within 14 days is used instead. A headline from August 2, 2026 states that the US and Israel paused strikes on Iran as a deal approached, and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly on the table. A second headline shows Iran warning the US against further attacks while in talks with allies. This suggests the strait may have been disrupted or threatened by military activity, and that diplomatic negotiations around its status were actively underway just weeks before the market closes. The core difficulty here is that this market depends on how a geopolitical situation resolves, and that is genuinely hard to forecast. The market currently puts the highest probability, around 47%, on the lowest traffic bracket, which would reflect continued disruption. But diplomatic talks appear to be in progress, and a deal could reopen normal traffic quickly. Military situations can shift fast in either direction. The timeline is also short, just weeks, meaning a single event could move the outcome dramatically with little warning.

The odds right now

• 0-2047%
• 20-4026%
• 40-6022%
• 60-807%
• 80+2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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