Khamenei # posts August 4 - August 11, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posts on X (formerly Twitter) during a specific seven-day window in August 2026. A result of under 5 posts means he was essentially quiet on the platform that week. A result of 5 or more means he was more active, with higher brackets capturing even more frequent posting. The market settles based on the exact count shown by a tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com for the account @khamenei_ir, covering August 4 to August 11, 2026, both measured at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. One important edge case: even deleted posts count, as long as the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes of posting. A news headline from August 2, 2026 suggests Iran's leadership is under internal tension, with disagreements among leaders about how to handle an ongoing conflict. This is relevant because political stress can either push public figures to post more, to shape the narrative, or to go quiet and avoid saying the wrong thing publicly. It is worth watching whether that internal division affects how openly Khamenei communicates on X. The market prices this at roughly 71% chance of fewer than 5 posts, suggesting most participants expect a quiet week, but past posting patterns can shift quickly based on events. Khamenei's X activity is irregular by nature: some weeks he posts nothing, others he posts several times responding to geopolitical moments. The unresolved internal conflict reported in the news adds a genuine wildcard. Nobody outside Iran's leadership knows how that tension will affect his public communications.

The odds right now

• <571%
• 5-919%
• 10-1410%
• 25-293%
• 15-193%
• 20-243%
• 40-441%
• 45-491%
• 50-541%
• 55-591%
• 60+1%
• 30-340%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 4, 12:00 PM ET and August 11, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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