Khamenei # posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posts on his X account (@khamenei_ir) during one specific week in 2026. Yes and No don't apply here because it's a multiple-choice count: the options are fewer than 5 posts, 5 to 9 posts, or 10 to 14 posts during that seven-day window. Right now the market thinks 5 to 9 posts is the most likely outcome, followed closely by fewer than 5. Whoever counts the posts wins based on the number recorded by a specific tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com during the window from July 28 at noon Eastern Time to August 4 at noon Eastern Time. Only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. One important edge case: if Khamenei deletes a post, it still counts as long as the tracker captured it within roughly five minutes of it being live. One recent headline notes that Iranians describe the regime as being at war not just with the US and Israel but with its own people. This suggests a tense domestic and geopolitical climate around the time this market resolves. In general, periods of high political tension tend to affect how frequently and carefully official accounts post publicly, though the direction that pressure pushes posting volume can go either way. The main challenge is that one person's posting habits in a single week are genuinely hard to forecast. Khamenei's account is used for official messaging, so posting volume depends heavily on what is happening politically and diplomatically at that exact moment. A quiet week could mean very few posts; a crisis or major event could push the count higher. There is also no strong public record of exactly how many posts he averages per week, which makes historical comparison difficult.

The odds right now

• 5-9+22.5 pts (1w)49%
• <5-9.5 pts (1w)48%
• 10-14-5.1 pts (1w)5%
• 15-19-6.1 pts (1w)1%
• 20-24-2.1 pts (1w)1%
• 30-34-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 25-29-1.2 pts (1w)0%
• 35-39-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 40-44-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• 45-49-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 50-54-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 55-59-0.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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