Kimi K4 released by…?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Moonshot AI, a Chinese AI company, will publicly release its next major model called Kimi K4 before a certain date. A Yes means anyone can sign up and use it, not just invited testers. A No means it either does not launch at all by that date, or it only reaches a small private group. Think of it like asking whether a new app will officially open to the public, versus staying in invite-only testing. The market settles as Yes only if Moonshot AI makes Kimi K4 available to the general public, meaning an open launch, open beta, or an open waitlist anyone can join, by 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. A private or closed beta does not count. The model must also be clearly the next major step after Kimi K3, so something labeled K3.5 would not qualify. Official announcements from Moonshot AI are the main source, confirmed by credible news coverage. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter most here is any announcement from Moonshot AI about Kimi K3 reaching users, internal development milestones, or a public roadmap hinting at when K4 might arrive. AI model release timelines are genuinely hard to predict, even for insiders. Development can accelerate or stall for technical, competitive, or regulatory reasons. The market currently prices the October deadline at about 25% and the December deadline at about 28%, meaning participants see a real but modest chance of it happening either way. The gap between those two numbers is small, suggesting the timing, if it happens at all, is quite uncertain across the second half of 2026.

The odds right now

• December 31, 202629%
• October 31, 202623%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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