Lecornu out as French PM by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Sébastien Lecornu will stop being France's Prime Minister at any point before a given deadline. A Yes means he left the job, even briefly, before that date. A No means he stayed in the role continuously all the way through. There are three separate deadlines being tracked, each with its own odds: the end of August 2026, the end of September 2026, and the end of December 2026. The market settles Yes the moment Lecornu is no longer Prime Minister, whether by resignation, dismissal, or any other departure. Crucially, even an announcement of his exit counts immediately, before it actually takes effect. If he is still serving on December 31, 2026, the final version resolves No. The source is official French government communications or a clear consensus among credible news outlets. None of the provided news articles relate to Lecornu or French politics. There is no recent relevant news to report here. The kind of development that would matter is any sign of a no-confidence vote in the French National Assembly, a major political crisis, or any public talk of cabinet reshuffles or Lecornu's future in the role. French politics has been genuinely unstable in recent years, and the event description itself notes that Lecornu already resigned once and was reappointed within days. That history shows how quickly things can shift. On the other hand, the market currently prices the chance of his departure by end of 2026 at only around 28%, suggesting participants lean toward him staying. The main uncertainty is the unpredictability of parliamentary coalitions and whether Macron's government can hold together.

The odds right now

• December 31, 202628%
• September 30, 20264%
• August 31, 20262%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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