Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, will leave office before the end of 2026, for any reason. A Yes means he is gone, whether through resignation, removal, detention, death, or any other cause that ends his presidency. A No means he is still in office when the deadline passes. The market settles Yes the moment Pezeshkian stops being president, even if only an announcement has been made and the formal departure hasn't happened yet. It covers any exit: voluntary resignation, forced removal, detention that prevents him from doing the job, or anything else that permanently keeps him from the role. Official Iranian government statements are the primary source, but credible news reporting can also be used to confirm it. No relevant news was provided for this market. The only headline in the feed is about an actor's death, which has no connection to Iranian politics. The kinds of developments worth watching would be any signs of political instability in Iran, health reports about Pezeshkian, or major shifts in the country's leadership structure. The market prices this at around 14%, meaning most participants expect him to stay. The genuine uncertainty is whether something unexpected disrupts that. Iranian politics can shift quickly, and internal power struggles, health issues, or crises are hard to forecast. His term officially runs into 2028, so there is no scheduled end before this deadline. The main open question is simply whether an unlikely but real event occurs in the next year and a half.

The odds right now

• December 31+1.0 pts (1w)14%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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