Mordovia Gubernatorial Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the governor's race in Mordovia, a republic inside Russia, in September 2026. The current governor, Artyom Zdunov, is running, and two other candidates are listed. A Yes for Zdunov means he wins and continues governing; a Yes for either challenger means an upset. The role being decided is the top regional leader, similar to a state governor. The market settles based on whoever officially wins the September 20, 2026 election in Mordovia, confirmed by credible reporting or, if needed, by Russia's official election authorities. A caretaker or temporary governor would not count. If a second round is needed, that result is what matters. If no clear winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market closes as 'Other', which is an unusual edge case worth knowing. None of the provided news stories relate to this market. They cover U.S. and Nicaraguan politics. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching would be any official announcement about the candidate list, Zdunov's standing with the Kremlin, or any change to the election schedule. The market is heavily one-sided, with Zdunov priced at 97%. In Russian regional elections, Kremlin-backed incumbents almost always win, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens, not a genuine contest between candidates. The small remaining probability reflects rare possibilities: a last-minute candidate change, a health issue, the election being postponed, or an unusual political shift in Moscow's support. These are low-probability scenarios, but they are the real sources of doubt here.

The odds right now

• Artyom Zdunov98%
• Alexander Alexandrov2%
• Yevgeny Tyurin0%
• Vladislav Tulaev0%
• Dmitry Masserov0%
• Timur Geraskin0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Mordovia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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