Morocco Legislative Elections: Party Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which political party will win the most seats in Morocco's parliament in the September 2026 election. Morocco's House of Representatives is the country's main legislative body, elected every five years. A 'Yes' for PAM means that party finishes first in seat count; same logic applies to RNI and PI. The market currently puts PAM as the frontrunner at 40%, with RNI second at 28% and PI third at 15%, meaning around 17% of probability is spread across other possible outcomes. The market settles on whichever named party holds the most seats after the September 23, 2026 vote. The official source is Morocco's Ministry of the Interior results website, confirmed by credible news reporting. If two parties tie on seats, total votes cast for each party breaks the tie. There is also a coalition rule worth knowing: if a listed party runs as part of a coalition, all seats that coalition wins count toward that party's total, which could meaningfully change the final numbers. None of the provided news headlines relate to Morocco or its upcoming election. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be: any major polling releases, shifts in party alliances or coalition announcements, and any changes to the official election calendar from Moroccan authorities. Moroccan elections are genuinely hard to call in advance. The country has a multiparty system where coalition-building matters as much as raw vote counts, and alliances can shift before election day. PAM leads at 40% but that still leaves a 60% combined chance for other outcomes. Polling data for Moroccan elections is limited and not always publicly available, so these odds rely on historical patterns and political momentum rather than deep survey data. More than a year remains before the vote, leaving plenty of time for circumstances to change.

The odds right now

• PAM40%
• RNI28%
• PI15%
• MP5%
• USFP2%
• PPS1%
• UC1%
• PJD1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 23, 2026

Legislative elections to elect the House of Representatives of Morocco are scheduled to take place on September 23, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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