Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Microsoft's stock price will finish above a specific dollar amount when the market closes on July 24, 2026. There are three separate price targets: $370, $380, and $390. Each one is its own Yes or No question. A Yes on $370 means Microsoft closes at $370.01 or higher. A No means it closes at exactly $370 or below. The higher the target, the harder it is to reach, which is why the odds drop sharply from $370 to $390. The market settles based on Microsoft's official closing price on July 24, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. The exact price used is the final one-minute trading candle of the regular session. One important edge case: if July 24 falls on a non-trading day, or if Microsoft does not trade at all that session, the market resolves 50-50 rather than Yes or No. Also, if Microsoft does a stock split before that date, the price targets get adjusted proportionally to match the new share price. The provided news from July 23 covers AI industry activity broadly, including announcements about AI data centers and new AI products, but none of the headlines are specifically about Microsoft or its stock. That said, major AI infrastructure news can affect Microsoft indirectly, since the company is a large player in cloud computing and AI services. Watch for any Microsoft-specific earnings announcements, product news, or broader market moves as the date approaches. Stock prices over a year-long horizon are genuinely hard to predict. The $370 target sits at 90% odds, meaning the market sees it as quite likely but not certain. The $390 target at 19% reflects real doubt that Microsoft will climb that high. Key unknowns include the overall economy, interest rate changes, Microsoft earnings reports between now and July 2026, and shifts in AI investment sentiment. Any large market shock or company-specific bad news could move the price significantly in either direction.

The odds right now

• $37092%
• $38062%
• $39014%
• $4009%
• $4104%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on July 24, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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