Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will be the next person to formally take the job of Prime Minister of Serbia before the end of June 2028. A Yes for any named person means they win a vote in the Serbian National Assembly, get sworn in, and lead a new government. The market currently gives Aleksandar Vučić the highest chance at 44%, meaning participants think he is the most likely candidate, though not a clear favorite. If none of the listed people take office, the market settles as 'Other'. The market settles on whoever is elected by the Serbian National Assembly and then officially sworn in as Prime Minister before June 30, 2028. Both steps must happen: the parliamentary vote and the formal swearing-in ceremony. A caretaker or temporary Prime Minister who was not voted in by the Assembly does not count, even if they hold the title for a period. If no qualifying person takes office by the deadline, the result is 'Other'. The source of truth is official Serbian government information. None of the provided news headlines relate to Serbian politics or the Prime Minister's office. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments that would matter are: parliamentary elections being called, a government collapsing and triggering a new formation process, or a public announcement of candidacy from one of the named individuals. Several genuine sources of uncertainty make this hard to call. The deadline runs to mid-2028, which is a long time in politics. A new Prime Minister could be needed tomorrow due to a government collapse, or not for years. Vučić leads at 44%, but that still leaves 56% spread across other names and unknown possibilities. Serbian politics can shift quickly, and new figures could emerge. The 'Other' outcome is also live if no qualifying appointment happens on schedule, adding another layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• Aleksandar Vučić-29.0 pts (1w)44%
• Ana Brnabić-2.0 pts (1w)12%
• Stefan Krkobabić+0.1 pts (1w)6%
• Dragan Đilas+0.1 pts (1w)5%
• Miloš Vučević-0.8 pts (1w)4%
• Ivica Dačić3%
• Branimir Jovanović-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Đuro Macut1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2028

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.