NYC Mayor # posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani post on X (formerly Twitter) in one specific week? The three outcome ranges are 20 to 39 posts, 40 to 59 posts, or 60 to 79 posts. The market currently favors the middle range, 40 to 59, as the most likely outcome, meaning participants broadly expect a moderately active posting week from the Mayor. A tracker tool at xtracker.polymarket.com will count every main-feed post, repost, and quote post from the @NYCMayor account between July 28 at noon ET and August 4 at noon ET. Replies to other people do not count, unless they appear on the main feed. One important edge case: if Mamdani deletes a post, it still counts as long as the tracker captured it within roughly five minutes of it being posted. Whichever range his final post count falls into is the winner. The two news items provided are about a marina renovation in Wellsville and a local administrator returning in Manning. Neither is related to Mamdani, NYC politics, or his social media activity. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is anything affecting how publicly active Mamdani is that week, such as a major city event, a political controversy, or a significant policy announcement. Predicting how often one person posts on social media in a single week is genuinely hard, because it depends on unpredictable day-to-day events. A quiet news week might mean fewer posts; a crisis or big announcement could push the count much higher. Mamdani is a relatively new mayor, so there is limited long-term posting history to rely on. The gap between the three ranges is also fairly tight, meaning even a handful of extra or fewer posts could shift the outcome from one bucket to another.

The odds right now

• 40-5956%
• 20-3923%
• 60-7918%
• 80-996%
• 100-1194%
• <201%
• 120-1391%
• 140-1591%
• 160-1791%
• 180-1991%
• 200+1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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