Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Starbucks earn more profit per share than analysts expect? The specific number is $0.69 per share, which is what Wall Street analysts collectively predicted when this market was created. A Yes means Starbucks beats that figure, even by one cent. A No means they hit exactly $0.69 or fall short. It is not about whether Starbucks is profitable overall, just whether they clear that one target number. This market settles on July 28, 2026, when Starbucks is expected to report earnings. The number that matters is GAAP EPS, which is a standard accounting measure of profit per share, specifically the diluted version. If Starbucks reports $0.70 or higher, it resolves Yes. If they report $0.69 or less, it resolves No. The company's official earnings documents are the source, and importantly, any later corrections to the number do not count unless there was an obvious clerical error at the original release. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching for would include any updates to Starbucks's guidance, news about sales trends in key markets like the US or China, changes in consumer spending, or analyst revisions to that $0.69 EPS estimate before the July 2026 report. The market currently prices a Yes at around 78%, so it leans clearly in one direction, but a meaningful gap remains. Large companies regularly miss analyst estimates, and the $0.69 target itself could shift before the report date if analysts revise their forecasts. Starbucks is navigating a turnaround under a newer CEO, and factors like consumer spending, commodity costs, and performance in China are all difficult to predict more than a year out. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts the current trajectory.

The odds right now

• Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?+8.0 pts (1w)77%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

As of market creation, Starbucks is estimated to release earnings on July 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Starbucks's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.69 as of market creation. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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