S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the S&P 500 ETF called SPY will close at a price higher than a specific number on July 24, 2026. SPY is a fund that tracks the 500 largest US companies, and its price moves up or down with the overall US stock market. There are three separate versions of the question: one for $720, one for $725, and one for $730. A Yes means the market ended that day above the target; a No means it closed at or below it. The result is determined by SPY's official closing price on July 24, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If that price is strictly above the listed number, it resolves Yes. If it equals or is below the number, it resolves No. Two edge cases worth knowing: if July 24 is not a regular trading day, the market splits 50-50 rather than resolving Yes or No. And if a stock split happens before then, both the price and the target number are adjusted proportionally so the comparison still makes sense. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching for include major shifts in US economic data (like inflation reports or jobs numbers), changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy, or significant geopolitical events, since all of these can move the S&P 500 substantially over a period of months. The deadline is over a year away, which is the main source of difficulty. A lot can change in twelve months: recessions, rate changes, earnings surprises, political events, or global shocks can all push stock prices far from where they are today. The market currently prices $720 at 97% and $730 at 83%, meaning traders see the higher thresholds as meaningfully less certain. But a year is a long time in markets, and confident forecasts at this horizon have a poor track record.

The odds right now

• $72097%
• $72595%
• $73091%
• $73576%
• $74041%
• $74513%
• $7554%
• $7504%
• $7652%
• $7602%
• $7701%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 24, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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