S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 27?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 stock index, closes above a specific price level on July 27, 2026. SPY is essentially a single ticker you can look up that moves with the broad US stock market. A Yes means the US stock market ends that day above the threshold; a No means it ends at or below it. With thresholds set at $715, $720, and $730, these are asking how high the market will be roughly a year from now. It resolves Yes if SPY's official closing price on July 27, 2026, as recorded by Pyth (a financial data provider), is strictly above the listed price. If the price equals the threshold exactly, it resolves No. If July 27 falls on a weekend or holiday with no trading, or if SPY does not trade that day at all, the market resolves 50-50. In the event of a stock split, both the actual price and the target threshold are adjusted proportionally, so a split does not create an artificial outcome. The provided news headlines are all about events in Pakistan and do not appear to have any connection to S&P 500 or SPY prices. There is no relevant recent market news to point to here. What would genuinely matter to watch for includes major shifts in US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings trends, or significant geopolitical events affecting global markets. The market currently prices all three thresholds at around 98%, meaning the market strongly implies SPY will be above $730 on that date. At that level, the real uncertainty is not a balanced debate between two sides; it is simply whether something unexpected and significant happens before July 2026. A major recession, a financial crisis, or a sharp market correction could change things quickly. A year is a long time, and markets can move dramatically. The main honest question is whether the unlikely happens.

The odds right now

• $72099%
• $72598%
• $73597%
• $73094%
• $71593%
• $74091%
• $74556%
• $75014%
• $7553%
• $7601%
• $7651%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 27, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 27, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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