Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran's internet will essentially go dark, not just slow down, but almost completely off. A 'Yes' means Iran's total internet traffic drops to nearly zero: 1% or less of its recent peak, for six hours in a row. A 'No' means that never happens before the deadline. Think of it like a city's power grid: this is not asking about flickering lights, it is asking whether the lights go almost completely out. The market settles 'Yes' only if Cloudflare's real-time traffic data for Iran shows internet usage fall to 1% or below of the previous four weeks' highest point, and stays there for at least six consecutive hourly readings. That six-hour window just needs to start before the deadline; it can finish after. The data source is Cloudflare Radar's Iran traffic chart, which is publicly viewable. If Cloudflare's tool ever goes permanently offline, credible news reporting could be used instead. The provided news points to active U.S. military strikes on Iran and rising regional tensions as of late July 2026. This is directly relevant: governments have historically shut down internet access during military conflicts or civil unrest to limit coordination and information flow. Escalating conflict raises the scenarios in which Iranian authorities might impose a blackout. The Taiwan headline is about a separate drill and is not relevant here. Even during serious conflicts, a total nationwide blackout is rare and extreme. Iran has imposed partial shutdowns before, but a near-complete cutoff lasting six hours is a high bar. The key unknowns are: how far the military situation escalates, whether Iranian authorities decide a blackout serves their interests, and whether infrastructure is damaged rather than deliberately switched off. The July deadline sits at just 6%, while August reaches 17%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about timing and whether this crosses the specific technical threshold at all.

The odds right now

• August 3117%
• July 316%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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