Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will formally try to fire Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve before the end of 2026. Warsh is currently the person who leads the Fed, the US central bank that sets interest rates. A Yes means Trump makes an unambiguous, official move to remove him from that specific role. A No means Warsh stays in place, or leaves on his own, or Trump only makes vague threats without acting. For Yes, Trump must make a clear, unequivocal public announcement or take a concrete formal step to remove Warsh as Fed Chair, before December 31, 2026. Vague complaints, conditional warnings, or statements of intent do not count. There is also a notable edge case: if Warsh resigns on his own before Trump acts, the market resolves No immediately, even if tensions were high. Separately, trying to remove Warsh from the Fed board altogether, without targeting his Chair role specifically, also does not count. None of the recent news provided relates to Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or any conflict between Trump and the Fed's leadership. The headlines cover Iran diplomacy, Asian markets, and an unrelated ferry accident. The kind of news that would matter here would be reports of Trump publicly criticizing Warsh, demanding rate cuts, or making any move toward replacing him. The market currently prices this at only 9%, meaning it is considered quite unlikely. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that picture. Trump and the Fed have historically had public friction, and presidents cannot easily fire Fed chairs under current law, which adds legal complexity to any attempt. The biggest open questions are whether a sharp economic disagreement emerges and whether Trump escalates from rhetoric to formal action, which has been a high bar historically.

The odds right now

• Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?+3.8 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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