USD x Iranian rials End of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the Iranian rial will stand against the US dollar by the end of August 2026, specifically on the black market. Iran has two exchange rates: an official government rate and a free-market rate that ordinary people actually use. This market tracks the free-market rate from a site called Bonbast. The brackets in the odds (like 1.8-1.9M) refer to millions of rials per one US dollar, so a higher number means the rial has gotten weaker and it costs more rials to buy a single dollar. The market settles based on whatever exchange rate Bonbast records for August 31, 2026. Bonbast actually publishes prices in Iranian toman, not rials, but the market converts that: one toman equals ten rials, so the brackets here are already in rials. The winning bracket is whichever range contains that day's rate. If the rate falls exactly on the border between two brackets, it goes to the higher one. The figure is considered final once September 1st data is published. If Bonbast goes offline permanently, the organizers will pick a replacement source. The most relevant recent development is active military tension between the US and Iran in early August 2026. Headlines point to US strikes on Iran, a brief report that Trump cancelled further strikes while suggesting a deal might be possible, and Iran denying any agreement about the Strait of Hormuz. This kind of geopolitical pressure, especially involving oil routes, tends to weaken the rial further. Whether tensions escalate, de-escalate, or freeze in place between now and August 31 is a key variable for where the exchange rate lands. Iran's free-market exchange rate is genuinely hard to predict because it reacts strongly to things nobody can fully foresee: how US-Iran diplomacy unfolds, whether sanctions tighten or ease, oil export levels, and domestic inflation. The market currently splits its weight roughly between the 1.8-1.9M range (41%) and below 1.7M (27%), with 2.0-2.1M at 25%. That spread reflects real disagreement, not a clear lean. A sudden diplomatic agreement could strengthen the rial; an escalation in conflict could push it sharply weaker. The deadline is still weeks away, leaving a lot of room for change.

The odds right now

• 1.8-1.9M40%
• <1.7M35%
• 1.9-2.0M33%
• 2.0-2.1M26%
• 2.1-2.2M25%
• 2.2M+22%
• 1.7-1.8M18%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for August 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.