Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Kevin Warsh will announce he is leaving his job as Chair of the US Federal Reserve before a specific date. A Yes means Warsh publicly confirms he is stepping down, being removed, or otherwise leaving the role. A No means he stays, or at least makes no such announcement. Note that this market assumes Warsh is already Fed Chair, which is itself a separate question from whether he will be appointed. The market settles Yes if Warsh, the Fed, or their official representatives make a clear, public announcement that he is leaving the Chair role, with the departure intended within 18 months of that announcement. The announcement must come by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Rumors, media reports, or vague hints do not count. Temporary leaves do not count. Only a firm, official statement qualifies, and it must signal a real, near-term departure, not a distant or hypothetical one. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Kevin Warsh or the Federal Reserve. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching would be any official announcement about the Fed Chair position, statements from the White House about Fed leadership, or news from Warsh himself. The biggest uncertainty is foundational: as of this market's framing, it is not publicly confirmed that Warsh even holds the Fed Chair position yet. If he is never appointed, the market resolves No by default. Even if he is appointed, Fed Chairs rarely leave early. The market prices this at just 7%, reflecting that the crowd sees early departure as unlikely but not impossible. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected forces a change.

The odds right now

• June 30, 20279%
• December 31, 20267%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.