What will Trump post this week? (August 3 - August 9): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Trump will write specific words in his own posts on Truth Social during a single week. There are three separate word-based questions running together: will he write 'Crime', will he write 'China', and will he write 'Lindsey' or 'Graham'? Each one resolves independently. A Yes means he typed that word himself in an original post or reply during the week. A No means the week ended without that word appearing in his own writing. Each term resolves Yes if Trump personally types it in an original Truth Social post or direct reply between August 3 and August 9, 2026. Reposts and quotes of other people's posts do not count, even if those posts contain the word. Plurals and possessives count, so 'crimes' or 'China's' would qualify. But a misspelling, a word broken up with symbols like 'Ch1na', or a word that only appears in an animated GIF would not count. The only account that matters is his verified Truth Social account. One headline directly relevant here: China and the US are actively in trade talks, with China expressing 'serious concern' over new US restrictions. That kind of live diplomatic friction is exactly the type of topic Trump has historically commented on publicly. The other headlines touch on military conflict, international courts, and media trends, which could also prompt posts but have a less direct connection to the specific terms being tracked. The high odds on all three terms reflect that these are common words in Trump's posting history, not rare ones. 'Crime' and 'China' especially appear frequently in his public statements. The real uncertainty is small but real: a quiet news week, a technical post format that does not qualify, or an unexpected choice to stay silent on a topic could flip any of these to No. The 'Lindsey/Graham' option at 73% carries slightly more uncertainty simply because it depends on a specific person being in the news that week.

The odds right now

• Crime93%
• China83%
• Russia83%
• Lindsey / Graham73%
• Rigged73%
• Communist72%
• World Cup62%
• Israel59%
• Nuclear48%
• Scam20%
• Pope14%
• Uranium13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 9, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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