What will Trump say in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Donald Trump will say three specific phrases out loud, on camera or audio, during August 2026. The three phrases are 'Central Casting,' 'Midterm,' and 'Through the Roof.' Each one is its own separate question with its own odds. A Yes means Trump verbally used that phrase at least once in August, in a recorded and publicly available video or audio clip. A No means he got through the entire month without saying it out loud in a recorded setting. Each phrase resolves Yes if a publicly accessible audio or video recording captures Trump saying that exact phrase between August 1 and August 31, 2026. Written use, like a Truth Social post, does not count. A video filmed before August 1 but posted during August also does not count. The key requirement is that the recording itself must have been made during August. There is no named third-party judge; the criteria point to a linked rulebook for edge cases. None of the recent news provided is directly relevant to whether Trump will say these specific phrases in August. That is not unusual for this type of market. The developments worth watching would be any major Trump speeches, press conferences, rallies, or interviews during August, since those are the settings where recorded verbal statements would be captured. All three phrases are priced at 96 to 97 percent, meaning the market treats a Yes as nearly certain for each one. At that level, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected prevents it: a month with unusually few public appearances, a health issue, or a recording that turns out to be outside the eligible time window. 'Midterm' and 'Central Casting' are phrases Trump has used very frequently for years. The real question is not whether he says them, but whether any technical issue with the recording rules trips up the resolution.

The odds right now

• Central Casting98%
• Midterm96%
• Affordable / Affordability96%
• Through the Roof96%
• American Dream92%
• No No No90%
• Garbage87%
• Sucker79%
• Marxist79%
• Ass77%
• Crooked Joe76%
• State of the Union / State of Union75%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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