Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific U.S. Senators will each cast a 'Yes' vote when the full Senate votes on a major crypto regulation bill called the Clarity Act (or equivalent crypto market structure legislation). Three senators are tracked separately: Thom Tillis, Jerry Moran, and John Fetterman. A 'Yes' result for any one of them means that senator voted in favor when the moment came. A 'No' means they voted against, skipped the vote, or the vote never happened at all before 2027. Each senator's market settles as 'Yes' only if two things both happen: first, a full Senate floor vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurs before January 1, 2027, and second, that specific senator votes 'Yea' on that vote. The vote must be the real final passage vote, not a procedural step like a committee vote or a cloture motion. If the senator is absent, votes 'Present', or leaves the Senate for any reason before the vote, it resolves 'No'. Vote-change requests after results are announced do not count. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Clarity Act, Senate crypto legislation, or these three senators. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: the bill advancing out of committee, Senate leadership scheduling a floor vote, or any of these senators making public statements about their position on crypto regulation. Three separate layers of uncertainty stack on top of each other. First, the underlying bill has to actually reach a full Senate floor vote before January 1, 2027, which is not guaranteed. Second, even if the vote happens, each senator's individual choice matters. Tillis is priced at 80%, suggesting the market sees him as a fairly likely 'Yes', while Fetterman sits at 50%, meaning genuine uncertainty. Senate schedules are unpredictable, and a senator's position can shift based on negotiations, political pressure, or changes to the bill's language.

The odds right now

• Thom Tillis80%
• Jerry Moran53%
• John Fetterman50%
• Rand Paul49%
• Mike Lee48%
• Ruben Gallego33%
• Mark Warner30%
• Kirsten Gillibrand28%
• Catherine Cortez Masto27%
• Lisa Blunt Rochester25%
• Raphael Warnock24%
• Josh Hawley23%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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