Who will be arrested before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific named individuals will be physically arrested before the end of 2026. The three options shown are John Brennan (former CIA Director), Mahmoud Khalil (a Palestinian-American activist who was detained by immigration authorities in 2025), and James Clapper (former Director of National Intelligence). A "Yes" for any of them means that person ends up in custody, not just investigated or charged on paper. A "No" means they reach December 31, 2026 without a qualifying arrest. Each person's market settles Yes if they are physically taken into custody, formally booked, voluntarily surrender on an active warrant, or placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring, all before December 31, 2026. The key rule to know: an indictment or arrest warrant alone does not count. The person must actually be detained or processed. Resolution relies on official government information or a clear consensus from credible news reporting. None of the provided news headlines relate to John Brennan, James Clapper, or Mahmoud Khalil. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments that would matter most are: criminal charges being filed, arrest warrants being issued, or official statements from the Justice Department about any of these individuals. The core difficulty is that predicting whether a specific person gets arrested involves legal, political, and prosecutorial decisions that are genuinely opaque from the outside. Prosecutorial choices can shift with political winds, legal challenges can slow or block proceedings, and the deadline is December 2026, leaving a meaningful window for things to change in either direction. The market prices Brennan at 28%, Khalil at 25%, and Clapper at 20%, meaning none are seen as a sure thing, and all sit in a range where the outcome is genuinely unclear.

The odds right now

• John Brennan-15.5 pts (1w)28%
• Mahmoud Khalil-1.0 pts (1w)25%
• James Clapper-0.5 pts (1w)20%
• Letitia James-5.0 pts (1w)18%
• José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+1.5 pts (1w)13%
• Loretta Lynch-5.5 pts (1w)12%
• Brandon Johnson+1.5 pts (1w)12%
• Candace Owens+0.1 pts (1w)11%
• Lee Jun-seok+2.6 pts (1w)11%
• Susan Rice+1.0 pts (1w)9%
• James Comey-0.5 pts (1w)8%
• Lisa Cook7%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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