Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: which Trump Cabinet member will be the first to officially leave their position, and will it happen before the end of 2026? A 'Yes' for a named person means they are the first out the door. The 'None before 2027' option wins if the entire Cabinet stays intact through December 31, 2026. The Cabinet here is defined broadly: it includes not just department heads like the Secretary of State, but also the Chief of Staff, CIA Director, UN Ambassador, and several other senior roles. The market settles the moment an announcement is made that someone is resigning or being removed from a Cabinet-level role, even if they haven't physically left yet. The announcement itself triggers resolution, not the actual departure date. If two people leave at the same time, the one who actually exits first wins; if that is also tied, the name that comes first alphabetically wins. Acting officials do not count. If nobody leaves before midnight on December 31, 2026, the 'None before 2027' option resolves as the winner. The provided news headlines all relate to Secretary of State Marco Rubio making public statements about Iran in early August 2026. These headlines show Rubio actively representing the administration on a major foreign policy issue, but they do not signal any departure or internal conflict. No news was provided suggesting any Cabinet member is on the way out. The kind of news that would matter here would be reports of a firing, a resignation announcement, or a serious public falling-out between a Cabinet member and the President. The core tension is real: nearly half the market thinks nobody leaves at all, while about 30% points specifically at RFK Jr. as the most likely exit. Cabinet turnover is genuinely hard to forecast because it often depends on private conversations, sudden decisions, or political flashpoints that nobody sees coming. The deadline is also still months away, which is a long time in any administration. RFK Jr. runs a department with a wide mandate and has sometimes been an unconventional figure even within the administration, which may explain why the market singles him out.

The odds right now

• None before 2027-0.2 pts (1w)46%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-0.8 pts (1w)30%
• Scott Bessent+5.7 pts (1w)7%
• Susie Wiles+1.8 pts (1w)6%
• Chris Wright+0.8 pts (1w)5%
• Pete Hegseth-1.3 pts (1w)4%
• Russell T. Vought-1.9 pts (1w)3%
• Kelly Loeffler-1.5 pts (1w)3%
• Sean Duffy+0.9 pts (1w)2%
• Lee Zeldin1%
• Marco Rubio-0.4 pts (1w)1%
• J.D. Vance-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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