Who will Trump meet with in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will have an in-person meeting with each named person during August 2026. There are three separate questions here, one for each individual: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Lebanese-American university president Joseph Aoun, and businessman Elon Musk. A 'Yes' means that person and Trump were physically in the same place and interacted directly. A 'No' means that simply did not happen before the month ended. Each question settles as Yes if credible news outlets report that Trump met in person with that specific individual at any point in August 2026, up to 11:59 PM ET on August 31. A phone call or video chat does not count. It must be a physical, face-to-face encounter. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting, meaning multiple reliable news sources would need to confirm it happened, not just a single claim. None of the news headlines provided are relevant to Trump's August meeting schedule or to any of the three named individuals. No recent reporting about planned or completed meetings was included here. The kind of news that would matter is any confirmed or announced in-person visit between Trump and Zelenskyy, Aoun, or Musk during August 2026. All three are currently priced quite low, between 6% and 9%, meaning the market sees each meeting as unlikely but not impossible. The main uncertainty is simply that diplomatic and personal schedules are fluid and often not announced in advance. A Zelenskyy meeting depends heavily on the state of Ukraine-related diplomacy. Musk's relationship with Trump has been publicly variable. Aoun is a less prominent figure whose path to a Trump meeting is less obvious, which explains the lowest odds.

The odds right now

• Elon Musk10%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy9%
• Joseph Aoun5%
• Giorgia Meloni5%
• Mohammed bin Salman3%
• Benjamin Netanyahu3%
• Miguel Díaz-Canel3%
• Vladimir Putin3%
• Keir Starmer2%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva2%
• Xi Jinping2%
• Kim Jong Un1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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