Who will Trump speak to in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will have a real-time verbal conversation with each named leader during August 2026. There are three separate Yes/No questions running at once: one for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, one for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and one for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A phone call, video call, or in-person conversation all count. A written exchange or meeting where they are in the same room but do not speak directly would not count. Each question settles Yes if credible media reporting confirms a verbal conversation happened between August 1 and August 31, 2026. The market can close early the moment a qualifying call is confirmed. If no confirmed call is documented by three days after August 31, it resolves No, even if a call later turns out to have happened. That timing rule is the key edge case: a secret or unreported call that surfaces too late will not count. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to planned Trump conversations with Carney, Putin, or Zelenskyy. No relevant recent news was provided. The kind of developments worth watching would be any announced summits, diplomatic breakthroughs or breakdowns in Ukraine-Russia talks, or shifts in US-Canada trade relations that might prompt a call. The market prices all three at high odds, between 75% and 87%, which reflects that Trump speaks frequently with world leaders and that a full month is a long window. The main uncertainty is not really whether these calls are plausible, but whether something disrupts them: a diplomatic falling-out, a scheduling gap, or a call that happens but goes unreported in time. For Carney the odds are highest, suggesting the market sees a US-Canada conversation as nearly routine. For Putin and Zelenskyy the slightly lower odds reflect that geopolitical tension can make calls less predictable.

The odds right now

• Mark Carney84%
• Andy Burnham79%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy78%
• Vladimir Putin65%
• Friedrich Merz62%
• Mohammed bin Salman59%
• Mark Rutte59%
• Emmanuel Macron52%
• Ursula von der Leyen38%
• Xi Jinping32%
• Elon Musk31%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa21%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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