Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q2 gross booking value be above __?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Airbnb's total dollar value of bookings made in Q2 2026 (April through June) will cross one of three specific thresholds: $26.4 billion, $26.7 billion, or $27 billion. Gross booking value is the full amount travelers paid for stays and experiences during that quarter, before any fees or costs are removed. A 'Yes' means Airbnb hit that number. A 'No' means it fell short. The three thresholds let you see where the market draws the line between confident and uncertain. This settles based on the gross booking value figure Airbnb reports in its official Q2 2026 earnings materials, such as its press release or SEC filing. The number used is whatever Airbnb publishes first; later revisions do not count. If Airbnb does not report gross booking value at all, or does not release earnings by September 30, 2026, all three markets resolve No. If the number is reported as a range, the midpoint is used. The market ends August 6, 2026, which is when Airbnb is expected to report. None of the recent news provided relates to Airbnb or its financial performance. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be Airbnb's own forward guidance, travel demand data for spring and summer 2026, or any macroeconomic signals about consumer spending on travel. The core challenge is that Q2 2026 earnings have not been reported yet, so the actual number is simply unknown. Travel demand can shift quickly due to economic conditions, consumer confidence, exchange rates, or unexpected events like health scares or geopolitical disruptions. The three thresholds are close together, meaning a small miss or beat changes outcomes across all three. The market prices the $26.4B threshold at 68% and $27B at 59%, showing meaningful but not extreme confidence, which reflects genuine uncertainty across all three levels.

The odds right now

• $26.4B68%
• $26.7B68%
• $27B60%
• $27.3B47%
• $27.6B32%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 6, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Airbnb's gross booking value for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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