Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above __?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Apple's iPhone sales revenue in its fiscal third quarter (roughly April through June 2026) will clear specific dollar thresholds. There are three separate versions of the question, one for each bar: $52 billion, $53.5 billion, and $55 billion. A 'Yes' means Apple's iPhones brought in more than that amount during those three months. A 'No' means they did not. Higher thresholds are harder to clear, which is why the odds drop as the number goes up. This settles based on the exact iPhone revenue figure Apple reports in its official Q3 2026 earnings materials, which Apple typically releases in late July or early August. The number used is whatever Apple publishes first, with no adjustments for later revisions. If Apple does not report iPhone revenue as a separate line item, or does not release earnings at all by August 31, 2026, all three versions resolve No. The market uses Apple's own reported figure, not analyst estimates or third-party data. No relevant news was provided about Apple's Q3 2026 iPhone revenue or earnings. The headlines in the feed cover unrelated political and tax topics, plus two classified-ad style listings for iPhone 17 and iPhone Air units in Canada, which do not tell us anything meaningful about Apple's overall quarterly revenue. The kind of news that would actually matter here: Apple's official earnings release, any pre-announcement, or analyst guidance updates tied to Q3 results. The core uncertainty is that iPhone revenue depends on global demand, supply chain conditions, and competitive dynamics that can shift quarter to quarter. Trade policy changes, tariffs, and currency movements between the US dollar and major markets like China and Europe can all affect the reported dollar figure. The three thresholds are spaced $1.5 billion to $1.5 billion apart, so even a small miss or beat changes which ones resolve Yes. Apple's actual report has not yet been released as of this market's end date, so the outcome is genuinely open.

The odds right now

• $52B81%
• $53.5B-17.5 pts (1w)67%
• $55B+36.5 pts (1w)67%
• $56.5B+12.0 pts (1w)46%
• $58B-2.5 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple's iPhone revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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