Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Canva, the Australian graphic design company, will reach a specific dollar valuation (either $39B, $40B, or $42B depending on which version you are looking at) by July 31, 2026, according to a specific private market pricing source. Canva is not yet publicly traded on a stock exchange, so its value is estimated through private market data rather than a live share price. A Yes means the valuation hit or passed that threshold at least once before the deadline. A No means it never reached it. The market settles based on valuation figures published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a service that tracks pricing for private company shares. If NPM reports that Canva's value reached or exceeded the listed amount on any single trading day between the market's creation and July 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Canva goes public (an IPO) before July 31, the actual stock market price and share count would also count toward resolution. If Canva is acquired and stops existing as an independent company, only valuations before the deal closes are considered. None of the recent news provided relates to Canva, its valuation, or a potential IPO. No relevant updates were included to point to. The kind of news that would matter here includes any announcement of a Canva fundraising round, an IPO filing, a secondary share sale, or an updated NPM valuation figure for the company. Canva is a private company, so its valuation does not update constantly the way a public stock does. It only shows up in NPM data when private share trades happen, which means the price can sit unchanged for weeks or months. This makes the question genuinely hard to read: you might not get new data points at all before the deadline. On top of that, each threshold here (39B, 40B, 42B) sits at fairly similar and modest odds, suggesting the market sees real uncertainty spread across a range rather than one clear outcome.

The odds right now

• ↑$42B+14.0 pts (1w)22%
• ↓$40B+12.3 pts (1w)20%
• ↓$39B+4.5 pts (1w)14%
• ↑$43.5B-4.0 pts (1w)5%
• ↑$50B-4.2 pts (1w)4%
• ↑$45B-2.5 pts (1w)3%
• ↓$37.5B-2.9 pts (1w)3%
• ↓$36B-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• ↑$60B0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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