Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Databricks, a major private tech company focused on data and AI software, will reach a specific size in dollar terms before the end of July 2026. There are three separate thresholds being tracked: $180 billion, $150 billion, and $200 billion. A Yes on any one means Databricks' estimated market value touched or passed that number at some point during the period. A No means it never did. Think of it like asking whether a private company's price tag crossed a certain line. The market settles based on a price published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a service that tracks valuations of private companies using real secondary-market trading data. If NPM reports a value at or above the threshold on any trading day up to July 31, 2026, the market resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Databricks goes public through an IPO before July 31, its actual stock market value during trading counts too. If the company is acquired and disappears as an independent entity, only valuations before that deal closes are considered. The only recent news provided is about a food security policy panel, which has no connection to Databricks or its valuation. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter to watch for include a new funding round, an IPO announcement, major customer or revenue news, or significant changes in AI industry sentiment. Databricks is still a private company, so its valuation is not set by open stock market trading every second. It is updated by NPM based on secondary trades, which happen less frequently and can move in chunks. The current odds show the $180B threshold at 33%, meaning the market sees it as possible but not certain. The AI sector's overall health, Databricks' revenue growth, and any IPO timing are all genuinely hard to forecast. A lot can shift between now and July 2026, in either direction.

The odds right now

• ↑$180B-46.0 pts (1w)29%
• ↓$150B-4.3 pts (1w)3%
• ↑$200B-20.8 pts (1w)3%
• ↑$190B-23.3 pts (1w)2%
• ↑$250B+0.5 pts (1w)1%
• ↓$140B-0.9 pts (1w)1%
• ↓$145B-3.9 pts (1w)1%
• ↑$225B0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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