Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Epic Games, the private company behind Fortnite and the Unreal Engine, will reach a specific dollar valuation before the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds here: $13.5 billion, $14 billion, and $11.5 billion (framed as staying above that floor). A Yes on any threshold means Epic's estimated company value touched or passed that number at least once during the period. A No means it never did. The market settles based on a daily price published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a platform that tracks valuations of private companies by monitoring secondary trading in their shares. If the NPM price for Epic touches or exceeds the listed threshold on any single trading day before December 31, 2026, that threshold resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Epic goes public through an IPO before then, the market will also use actual stock market prices to check the thresholds. If Epic is acquired and stops being its own independent company, only valuations recorded before that deal closes will count. None of the provided news headlines relate to Epic Games or its valuation. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be any news about Epic's revenue, a potential IPO announcement, major game launches, or changes in the broader tech and gaming sector that might shift how investors value private companies. Epic is a private company, so its valuation is not updated constantly like a stock price. It depends on how often private shares actually trade on platforms like NPM, and that data can be thin or irregular. The three thresholds are also fairly close together, which means a moderate swing in sentiment could flip all of them. Broader conditions in tech investing, gaming industry trends, and any news about an Epic IPO could all move the needle in ways that are hard to anticipate from today's vantage point.

The odds right now

• ↑$13.5B61%
• ↑$14B+2.5 pts (1w)47%
• ↓$11.5B41%
• ↓$10B30%
• ↑$15B-1.5 pts (1w)25%
• ↑$20B-0.9 pts (1w)15%
• ↑$17.5B-4.5 pts (1w)13%
• ↑$25B9%
• ↑$30B+0.1 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Epic Games' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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