Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Glean, a private AI-powered workplace search company, will reach certain size milestones by the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds: $6 billion, $7 billion, and $7.5 billion. A 'Yes' on any one of them means Glean's valuation hit that number or higher at some point before the deadline. A 'No' means it never reached that level during the period. Think of it like asking whether a private company's price tag crosses a few different marks on a ruler. Each threshold resolves Yes if a specific data source, Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), reports Glean's valuation at or above that amount on any single trading day between now and December 31, 2026. NPM is a platform that tracks private company share prices. If Glean goes public through an IPO before the deadline, its stock market value would also count. One important edge case: if Glean gets acquired and stops being an independent company, only valuations reached before that acquisition close would count. The price paid in the deal itself does not count. No specific recent news about Glean was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be new fundraising rounds that set a fresh valuation, reports of an IPO filing or timeline, major new customer announcements, or broader shifts in how investors are valuing AI software companies. The core difficulty here is that Glean is a private company, so its valuation is not set by a public stock market every second. It only updates when private trades happen and NPM records them, which means the data can be sparse or move in jumps rather than gradually. Beyond the data mechanics, the AI software market is genuinely volatile right now, and investor appetite for high valuations can shift quickly. The market currently prices the $6B threshold at 68%, suggesting it sees that as more likely than not, while $7.5B at 57% is treated as nearly a coin toss.

The odds right now

• ↓$6B68%
• ↑$7.5B-8.0 pts (1w)57%
• ↑$7B50%
• ↓$5.5B-8.5 pts (1w)38%
• ↑$8B-7.0 pts (1w)31%
• ↓$5B+0.5 pts (1w)24%
• ↑$9B-1.0 pts (1w)18%
• ↓$4B14%
• ↑$10B-3.5 pts (1w)12%
• ↑$12.5B12%
• ↑$15B11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Glean's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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