Will Iran target a Arab country on...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a specific question: on one of three listed dates (August 2, 3, or 4, 2026), did Iran directly launch an airstrike or missile attack against any one of 21 Arab countries? Yes means Iran itself fired missiles or drones at Arab territory on that day. No means it did not. Importantly, attacks by groups Iran supports, like the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon, do not count. It has to be Iran pulling the trigger directly. The market settles Yes if Iran's own forces launch an airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike, including one-way attack drones, at an Arab country's territory on the specific date in question, measured by Arabia Standard Time. The strike counts even if it is intercepted before hitting the ground. It does not count if it is only a threat, a cyberattack, or an attack by a proxy group. If news reports conflict, the market can stay open up to 3 extra days to reach a clear consensus before settling. Two relevant headlines from August 1, 2026 stand out. US embassies across the Middle East issued alerts telling people to prepare to depart, which signals that US officials perceived a genuine and elevated risk of Iranian military action in the region. Separately, a former advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader publicly threatened Israel and Gulf states. These are threat signals, not confirmed actions, and the resolution criteria specifically exclude threats that have not been executed. The odds shifted significantly in just three days, from 66% down to 47%, which tells you the situation is moving fast and participants are actively revising their read. The core difficulty is that military decisions at this level can change in hours based on diplomacy, deterrence, or escalation that happens behind closed doors. The distinction between a direct Iranian strike and a proxy strike also matters a lot here, since only direct Iranian action counts, and attribution in a fast-moving conflict can be genuinely unclear for days.

The odds right now

• August 267%
• August 357%
• August 751%
• August 848%
• August 447%
• August 543%
• August 1043%
• August 942%
• August 642%
• August 1139%
• August 1639%
• August 1838%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.