Will Revolut's valuation hit __ by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Revolut, the European digital banking app, will reach a specific company value by July 31, 2026. There are three separate thresholds being tracked: $100 billion, $82.5 billion, and $65 billion. A 'Yes' on the $100B version means Revolut's estimated worth, as tracked by a private-market data service, touched or crossed $100 billion at any point during the period. A 'No' means it never got there before the deadline. This market settles based on a valuation figure published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a service that tracks share prices for private companies that aren't yet on a public stock exchange. If NPM's data shows Revolut's value hit the target amount on any single trading day before July 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Revolut goes public through an IPO before the deadline, the actual stock price on the exchange would also count toward resolution, using the highest trading price multiplied by total shares outstanding. The two news headlines provided are not related to Revolut or its valuation. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter most to watch for are: a new funding round, an IPO announcement, updated financial results, or a change in NPM's published price for Revolut shares. The main challenge is that Revolut is still a private company, so its 'valuation' is an estimate from secondary market trading, not a live stock price. That figure can be thin and slow-moving. At 75%, the market already prices the $100B threshold as fairly likely, so the real uncertainty is whether something unexpected derails it: a market downturn, a regulatory setback, or NPM simply not updating its data. The $82.5B and $65B markets sit at very low odds, suggesting the market sees those lower thresholds as largely already cleared.

The odds right now

• ↑$100B+59.5 pts (1w)77%
• ↓$82.5B-8.0 pts (1w)6%
• ↓$65B+2.9 pts (1w)4%
• ↓$70B+2.3 pts (1w)4%
• ↑$125B-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• ↑$110B-3.2 pts (1w)2%
• ↓$77.5B+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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