What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of July 27 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the most widely traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, will touch specific price levels during one particular week in July 2026. SPY is a single share price that moves with the overall U.S. stock market. A 'Yes' means the price climbs high enough to touch that target at least once during normal trading hours that week. A 'No' means it never quite gets there. Three separate price targets are listed: $740, $745, and $750. Each target resolves Yes if SPY's price touches or exceeds it during any single minute of regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) in the week of July 27 to July 31, 2026. The data comes from a service called Pyth, which tracks prices minute by minute. Even a brief, one-minute spike to the target price counts. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not count, even if they cross the threshold. If Pyth has a technical outage, the official daily high from the exchange is used instead. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching between now and July 2026 would include major shifts in U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings seasons, and any significant geopolitical or trade events that tend to move the broader stock market. This market resolves more than a year from now, which makes it genuinely hard to price. That said, the market currently places $740 at 98% and $745 at 95%, suggesting participants see those lower targets as nearly certain given where SPY trades today. The real uncertainty clusters around $750, priced at 66%. A full year of economic surprises, policy changes, recessions, geopolitical shocks, or even a stock split could all shift the picture significantly. The further out a deadline is, the more unknown variables can intervene.

The odds right now

• ↑ $74095%
• ↑ $74591%
• ↑ $75070%
• ↓ $73549%
• ↑ $75538%
• ↓ $73030%
• ↓ $72520%
• ↑ $76018%
• ↓ $72017%
• ↓ $71510%
• ↑ $7657%
• ↓ $7105%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of July 27 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.