Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the full U.S. Senate will hold a real, on-the-record vote on the CLARITY Act, a bill about how cryptocurrency markets are regulated in the United States, before Congress leaves for its summer break in August 2026. A Yes means senators publicly cast recorded votes on the bill or a key procedural step tied to it. A No means the Senate adjourns for the recess without ever putting the bill to that kind of vote, even if members discussed it or committees worked on it. The market settles Yes if, by 11:59 PM on August 7, 2026, the Senate holds any recorded vote connected to the CLARITY Act: that includes a final passage vote, a vote to start debating the bill, or a cloture vote used to end debate and move forward. Important edge cases to know: committee votes do not count, voice votes do not count, and unanimous consent agreements do not count, even if they technically advance the bill. Only votes where each individual senator's position is officially on the record will satisfy the criteria. The provided news headlines from early August 2026 cover a Senate debate response in South Carolina, Democratic Senate candidate discussions in New Hampshire, and a cabinet confirmation vote. None of these relate directly to the CLARITY Act or crypto legislation. There is no recent news here to point to. The kind of development that would matter is a Senate floor scheduling announcement, a leadership agreement to bring the bill up for debate, or a cloture filing tied to the bill. The market is nearly split, with Yes at 44%, reflecting genuine uncertainty. Congressional scheduling is notoriously unpredictable: Senate leaders control the floor calendar and can pull or add bills with little notice. The CLARITY Act also involves crypto regulation, a topic where bipartisan agreement has historically been difficult to build quickly. With the August recess deadline creating real time pressure, the core question is whether Senate leadership sees enough support and urgency to schedule a vote in the remaining days rather than leaving it for after the break.

The odds right now

• Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?22%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Senate conducts any recorded vote on the CLARITY Act, or on a motion relating to it, by 11:59:59 PM ET on August 7, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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