Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (August 3 - August 8): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the White House will officially wrap up the President's public day early, before 6:30 PM Eastern Time, on each of three specific dates in early August 2026. A 'full lid' is essentially the press office telling reporters: the President is done for the day, no more events, no more news to watch for. A Yes means that announcement came before 6:30 PM. A No means the President's day was still officially open past that time. Each date resolves Yes if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM Eastern Time on that day. The official source is the Roll Call daily calendar, which logs the time of the first full lid. If Roll Call is unavailable, a backup source called Forth is used instead. One important catch: partial lids like a 'lunch lid' or an 'intermission' do not count, even if they sound similar. Only an announcement explicitly called a 'full lid' qualifies. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to this market. They cover unrelated topics like energy grants, AI research, and Brazilian politics. The kind of news that would matter here is anything about the President's schedule for those specific days: planned evening events, travel, press conferences, or late-breaking situations that might keep the White House active past 6:30 PM. The main challenge is that presidential schedules are genuinely unpredictable day to day. An unexpected event, a late meeting, a foreign policy development, or travel can push the full lid past 6:30 PM with little warning. The market prices August 3 at 71%, August 6 at 66%, and August 8 at 64%, suggesting the crowd sees early lids as somewhat more likely than not, but far from certain. Small scheduling surprises are enough to shift the outcome on any single day.

The odds right now

• August 868%
• August 667%
• August 365%
• August 545%
• August 745%
• August 411%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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