Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Virginia will experience its most severe possible drought category before the end of August 2026. The U.S. Drought Monitor uses a scale from D0 (abnormally dry) up to D4 (exceptional drought), which is the worst level. A Yes means at least 1% of Virginia's land area hits that extreme D4 level at some point. A No means the state stays below that threshold the entire time. Think of D4 as crops failing, water supplies critically short, and emergency conditions across a meaningful patch of the state. The market settles Yes if any official weekly Drought Monitor report, published on or before August 31, 2026, shows 1% or more of Virginia in D4 status. The data comes from the National Drought Mitigation Center, which publishes every Thursday. Just one qualifying report is enough for a Yes. There is a 7-day waiting window after any qualifying report, to allow for corrections. If the report data is disputed and corrected within that window, the corrected number is what counts. If no reports are published due to a disruption, a later report can still be used, up to 14 days past the deadline. No recent news relevant to Virginia drought conditions was provided. The headlines given cover unrelated topics. If you want to track this market, the thing to watch is the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map for Virginia, plus any weather forecasts covering rainfall deficits or heat waves in the state through late August 2026. The market currently prices this at about 16%, meaning it is considered unlikely but not impossible. D4 is the rarest drought category, and reaching it requires an extended period of very low rainfall combined with heat. The main uncertainty is simply weather: rainfall patterns over a span of many weeks are genuinely hard to forecast. Virginia also has varied geography, so conditions differ across the state. The 1% threshold is a small area, which slightly lowers the bar, but D4 itself is still an extreme condition that most years never arrives.

The odds right now

• Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Virginia published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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