Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Wildberries, one of Russia's largest online shopping platforms, will officially announce it is going bankrupt before the end of 2026. Wildberries (legally called RVB LLC) is a major e-commerce company similar to Amazon in the Russian market. A Yes means the company publicly declares it is filing for bankruptcy. A No means it continues operating without making such a declaration, even if it faces serious financial trouble. The market settles Yes if RVB LLC, or a parent or successor company, makes a clear, definitive public announcement that it is filing for bankruptcy, through an official channel or confirmed legal filing, before December 31, 2026. Crucially, just saying they are considering bankruptcy or might file is not enough. The announcement must commit to a filing, not just hint at one. The actual filing does not have to go through for Yes to trigger, but the official announcement must be unambiguous. None of the provided news headlines relate meaningfully to Wildberries or its financial situation. There is no recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be reports of major debt problems, shareholder disputes, regulatory pressure on the company, or statements from RVB LLC leadership about its financial health. The market currently prices this around 14%, so participants lean toward No, but real uncertainty remains. Wildberries has faced internal conflicts, ownership disputes, and operates in a volatile economic environment shaped by sanctions and shifting Russian consumer conditions. Bankruptcy announcements are also rare events that can happen suddenly when they do occur. The main honest uncertainty is whether an unexpected financial shock or corporate crisis could force the company's hand before 2027.

The odds right now

• Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?14%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if RVB LLC, which does business as Wildberries, or any corporate parent, subsidiary, or successor of RVB LLC, announces that it is petitioning or filing for or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs, or if such a filing or petition is rejected, withdrawn, or otherwise not accepted. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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