WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil will be above a specific dollar level at the close of trading on July 23, 2026. WTI crude oil is the main American oil benchmark, and its price moves with global supply, demand, and geopolitical events. A 'Yes' means oil closed higher than the listed number that day. A 'No' means it closed at or below it. There are three separate price targets here: $87, $88, and $92, each with its own Yes or No outcome. The market settles based on the official closing price of the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract at the end of the trading session on July 23, 2026. The price comes from Pyth, a financial data feed, specifically the last one-minute candle of regular trading hours that day. If the closing price is strictly above the listed number, it resolves Yes. If it equals or is below the number, it resolves No. One edge case worth knowing: if July 23 is not a trading day for any reason, the market resolves 50-50 rather than Yes or No. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching over time would include OPEC production decisions, changes in U.S. or global oil demand, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, and broader shifts in economic growth expectations, since all of these can move crude oil prices significantly. Oil prices are genuinely difficult to forecast over a year-plus horizon. The market currently prices the $87 threshold at 97%, suggesting participants see it as quite likely, with $92 at 88% and $88 at 81%. But a lot can change: a global recession could push prices well below these levels, while supply disruptions or conflict could push them above. The further out the date, the more unpredictable the path. The main honest uncertainty at these odds is whether something unexpected and large derails what currently looks like a high-probability outcome.

The odds right now

• $9099%
• $8999%
• $8699%
• $8898%
• $8797%
• $9181%
• $9245%
• $933%
• $962%
• $952%
• $940%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on July 23, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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