WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the price of WTI crude oil will be above a specific dollar level at the close of trading on July 24, 2026. WTI crude oil is the standard American benchmark for oil prices, and its price moves daily based on supply, demand, and global events. A "Yes" means oil closed higher than the listed price that day. A "No" means it closed at or below it. There are three separate versions here, each with a different price threshold: $86, $87, and $88. Each version settles based on the official WTI crude oil futures closing price on July 24, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If the closing price is strictly above the listed number, it resolves Yes. If the price equals the listed number exactly, it resolves No. One important edge case: if July 24, 2026, turns out not to be a trading day, the market does not resolve Yes or No in the normal way, but instead splits 50-50 between both outcomes. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would include major changes in global oil supply such as OPEC production decisions, shifts in demand from large economies, or geopolitical events affecting oil-producing regions. The market currently prices all three thresholds very high, at 93% to 98%, which means traders collectively expect oil to be well above these levels in July 2026. The main uncertainty is not a close competition between Yes and No. It is simply whether something unexpected, like a sharp demand slowdown, a supply surge, or a global economic shock, pushes oil significantly lower before that date. Over a year-long horizon, big surprises are always possible, even when the starting odds look heavily one-sided.

The odds right now

• $8698%
• $8798%
• $8892%
• $8956%
• $9144%
• $9043%
• $9239%
• $9321%
• $959%
• $949%
• $966%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on July 24, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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